A Case of Normalcy Bias

Romans did not believe Rome would collapse.  Hundreds of thousands of Jews refused to leave Germany by the mid-1930s.  There are hundreds of others examples throughout history where people were unable to process events and rationally conclude something they’ve never experienced is about to transpire.  This inability is called “normalcy bias” and Americans are infected with it.

For most, it is incomprehensible to believe the United States, the most powerful country on the earth, could self-destruct.  Everyone under the age of seventy has lived a relatively comfortable life.  The poor of this country are wealthier than 80% of the inhabitants on earth.  Most Americans work and provide a decent life for their family.  The modern incarnation of the banking system and the dollar is all they know.  A centralized government growing in size, scope, and power is all anyone has known.

This is what we know and all we know.  Our normalcy bias tells us that government must tax our income because it needs revenue.  Government must pass more criminal laws, statutory laws, rules, and regulations.  Government must use its power to take property from some people to give to others.  Government must borrow money to fund spending or the economy will collapse.  Government must print money to save the banking system.  Government must tell the people what to eat, where to live, what to drive, etc.  The list goes on ad nauseum.

Food, water, and relatively cheap energy are taken for granted.  Most people don’t realize the grocery store has a three day supply of food.  Most people are unprepared for any extended food or water shortages.  If there is any shortage of gasoline, food and water will not be transported to grocery stores.  People will become desperate.  Civil unrest will ensue.

Consider young adults that came of age in the post 9/11 era.  All they’ve known their adult life is the intrusive government surveillance state, the Patriot Act, the TSA, NDAA, Food Safety Modernization Act, Google and the NSA, and CISPA.  A single person having the power to decide whether or not an American citizen can be killed.  This is normal to them.  Sadly, it’s normal to most people.  This is extreme behavior and people have become immune to it.  What the founding generation considered extreme and declared independence against was this very behavior.

The country is faced with a $16 trillion debt, nearly $100 trillion in unfunded liabilities, $70 trillion of outstanding debt (household, state and local govt, etc.) and a banking system based upon a fiat currency and fractional reserve lending.  Various monetary and fiscal policies destroy any semblance of savings, capital formation, or investment.  Growth occurs through monetary and fiscal stimulus rather than an increase in the production of real goods and services.  Producers that are able to save are penalized.  Government propaganda tells us all is well and things are under control.

The truth is the government cannot tax away the debt.  The government cannot borrow to pay off the debt.  Social Security and Medicare are unsustainable.  The criminalization of America and the surveillance state choke the very life and liberty out of what remains. Some say banks and the government are too big to fail.  The truth is they are too big to succeed.

Eventually, the banking system will collapse under a mountain of debt and obligations that can never be met.  Most likely, the government and central bankers will print money until they no longer have any ink left.  All wealth will be destroyed.  Other alternatives are possible, but the entire global monetary system is based on debt.  A complete reset of the entire monetary system is inevitable.  It’s just a question of when, not if.

Does this seem harsh?  Good!  I hope it is “in your face kind of harsh”.

When I explain this to most people they deny it.  They say I’m crazy.  They say there are smarter people that will figure it out.  They point to their lives and the home they bought and the life they had.  They are in denial because of their normalcy bias.

What we are witnessing is government nihilism.  Government is destroying precisely what it was instituted to protect.   Government has metastasized like a cancerous tumor destroying its host.   Those that support the status quo, the “just get my guy in mentality”, the sophomoric change are part of the problem, not part of the solution.

As my colleagues and friends Mark Kreslins and Joshua Lyons say “we can’t be nibbling around the edges”.  They mean we can’t simply cut some spending here, lower taxes there, and believe all is well.  We need mature adults discussing big ideas.

A serious discussion of ALL possible solutions and alternatives is necessary.  We must discard our normalcy bias and recognize the clear and present dangers and act accordingly.  Otherwise, we will suffer the same fate as the Romans and the Jews.

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5 Comments

Filed under Philosophical

5 responses to “A Case of Normalcy Bias

  1. Reblogged this on Liberty Candle and commented:
    Romans did not believe Rome would collapse. Hundreds of thousands of Jews refused to leave Germany by the mid-1930s. There are hundreds of others examples throughout history where people were unable to process events and rationally conclude something they’ve never experienced is about to transpire. This inability is called “normalcy bias” and Americans are infected with it.

    For most, it is incomprehensible to believe the United States, the most powerful country on the earth, could self-destruct. Everyone under the age of seventy has lived a relatively comfortable life. The poor of this country are wealthier than 80% of the inhabitants on earth. Most Americans work and provide a decent life for their family. The modern incarnation of the banking system and the dollar is all they know. A centralized government growing in size, scope, and power is all anyone has known.

    This is what we know and all we know. Our normalcy bias tells us that government must tax our income because it needs revenue. Government must pass more criminal laws, statutory laws, rules, and regulations. Government must use its power to take property from some people to give to others. Government must borrow money to fund spending or the economy will collapse. Government must print money to save the banking system. Government must tell the people what to eat, where to live, what to drive, etc. The list goes on ad nauseum……….

  2. Can’t disagree with a single point you made but I think there’s a missing point that you should have included. Coupled with massive domestic spending debt is a gargantuan military apparatus set up to protect our worldwide empire. This military is fiscally unsustainable as well.
    Military socialism is still socialism. This always seems to be where conservatives (not yourself, conservatives in general) seem to hit the rocks when they start steering towards a libertarian point of view. They can never seem to sever that link to the warfare state while they’re all to eager to dismantle the welfare state.

    How many times have you heard this from a conservative? “I like a lot of what Ron Paul says, but when it comes to foreign policy….”

    • No doubt… welfare and warfare are different wings of the same bird of prey (a partial quote of Tom Woods). BTW, I mostly agree with Paul on his foreign policy. My one exception is (and I could misunderstand his position) eliminating all military bases overseas. I’m good with all of them except in cases where we have treaties. Do we just walk away from them? Do we renegotiate? Other? I think we could close a good chunk of them, just not 100% of them. Nevertheless, the carnage from the heads that explode when you try to even suggest closing 1 military base is unreal. Conservatives talk one game but still want their own version of big government. I use to consider myself one of them. I no longer do. The only proper way to describe myself is as a Constitutionalist. Otherwise, I am just me.

      • SovereignMary

        Scott – I whole-heartily agree with all that you state and I also have the same opinion in supporting Ron Paul and all that he stands for as a true-blue Constitutionalist.
        As far as closing all U.S. foreign installed military bases – I believe that it is long overdue that we do renegotiate the treaties that we have with other nations and allow those treaties to be nullified.
        Let those allies and their taxpayers pay for their own bases, troops and munitions and bring our troops home to secure our own sovereign borders.

      • We should renegotiate… I agree. I just don’t agree with doing that without the renegotiation. Though, I’d be interested to see how many bases could be simply closed where we don’t have treaties. Is that 50%, 80%, 95% of the bases? The warfare and the welfare need to end. Welfare includes the ponzi schemes known as Social Security and Medicare. At the root of it all is the monetary system based on a fiat currency with fractional reserve lending practices and where debt is considered wealth, credit is the basis for expanding the economy, savings is punished, and the central planners can destroy the currency by printing more money.

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